In this latest edition of our monthly report:
Recession or stagflation ?
- Economic growth;
- Emerging markets and energy;
- Where are we now?;
Assessment of the economic situation
The financial health of listed companies in the second quarter is better than expected. In the absence of any major news during the summer period, tourism is running at full speed, boosted by high oil prices.
- The crisis in China continues;
- Inflation eases in the economic data;
- Jackson Hole;
Financial markets during the month
After a positive July, the market consolidated in August. Profit-taking, low volume and the FED’s ever-watchful eye on economic data left the door open to a further rate hike(s).
- Techno stocks rebound again…;
- The US 2-year rate briefly dipped back below 5%.;
- Inflation-linked bonds and gold;
Comments on investment decisions
Investor positioning is around 50% equities. During the second quarter, institutional investors increased their equity weightings, but more recently, have reduced them. The market has been affected by these decisions in low volumes. Our neutral/defensive approach is justified.
- Precious metals, listed real estate (REIT);
- Equity performances, and
- Performance of bonds, currencies and commodities.
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