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Category: Monthly Investment Report

Investment strategy – December 2018

Strategy and Macro US Elections In the US, this time, polls were good and reliable. We are due for cohabitation / gridlock over next two years. In principle it would spell low odds of significant changes in economic policy, which should remain supportive, but gradually less so. The good news is that overheating and a […]

Investment strategy – November 2018

STRATEGY AND MACRO Trigger, what trigger? Trump accused the Fed for having triggered Wall Street correction. This is destabilizing for professional investors. He did it a couple of times already, to preemptively appoint a culprit, ahead of an inevitable economic slowdown or of a possible market correction. This is just a new episode of his […]

Investment Strategy – September 2018

Macroeconomy Vision and pro-activity US business cycle has been particularly buoyant of late. Growth and inflation largely outperform that of developed countries. The US no longer flirts with deflation, rightly considered to be the worst evil for a democratic society. For sure, part of the momentum is due to the spectacular Trump tax stimulus. But […]

Investment Strategy – August 2018

Macroeconomy US knock-on effect The US capex cycle has experienced a low magnitude and a slow-motion recovery, considering a) the unprecedented monetary and b) latest fiscal stimulations. The US cabinet counted on a significant acceleration from 2018, following new tax incentives. But, so far, companies have rather announced intentions to increase capex spending than actually […]

Investment Strategy – July 2018

Macroeconomy Temporary slowdown The recent leading indicators carried some important signals for policymakers. Accelerating growth in the US was counterpoised by greater uncertainty about economic growth trajectories in the Eurozone, UK and Japan. Emerging markets meanwhile showed increased signs of stress as exports fell amid a downturn in global trade. Forward-looking indicators showed especially worrying […]

Investment Strategy – June 2018

Macroeconomy The infernal T…rio Over coming months, investors must carefully monitor the three following issues: Trump, Tariffs and ¨Technos¨. Trump. The US President is actually beleaguered on three fronts: politics, economics and defense. Important developments are soon expected to unfold on Mueller investigation on trade and potentially with North-Korea / in the Middle-East. If US […]

Investment strategy – May 2018

Macroeconomy Macro OK, but with more heterogeneity Global growth will remain solid over coming couple of quarters. Synchronization is still ok, but with declining homogeneity. In spite of early signs of deceleration, the pace of global expansion will stay superior to long-term trend rates. Consumer sectors have not markedly decelerated, though the latest rise in […]

Investment strategy – April 2018

Macroeconomy A major change occurred in the past months following the Trump fiscal package. Indeed, the US economy will receive a shot in the arm through the recent massive tax and spending. The magnitude and the duration of this reform is significant. It will derail the trajectory of the US economy from its ¨secular stagnation¨ […]

Investment strategy – March 2018

Hold on to your hat! Courtesy of central banks’ repression of volatility, greed gradually overcame fear, namely for yield hungry investors. ¨Cryptomaniacs¨ first took the tall, as policymakers (in Asia) and financial sector (in Anglo-Saxon countries) joined forces to strangle this ¨corrosive and dangerous¨ means of speculation. This was considered sort of adventures as being […]

Investment strategy – February 2018

Strategy So spoiled Preconditions for an eventual debt shock / crisis are multiplying. It will definitely happen in coming years. But predicting its timing is, unfortunately, impossible. Before that, short to medium-term, the odds of a ¨normal¨ fixed income correction are rising. It could well coincide with a phase of ¨irrational exuberance¨ i.e. a melt-up […]