17.11.2023 – Short-term consolidation is likely, but broad-based participation in this rebound does not suggests material weakness into year-end. The nature of this rally is however fragile, as it relies on economic data being just weak enough to keep a lid on yields, not so weak as to suggest a recession, or too strong to push yields higher.
31.10.2023 – Breadth remains poor and large cap weakness has removed a key pillar of strength. Investors are still handing on to the idea of an end-of-year rally, and a short-term rally is of course possible, but investors should wait for this breakdown to be invalided before adding exposure.
01.10.2023 – The equity selloff picked up pace in the last couple of weeks, butmarketsstarted losingmomentum back in July, just as yields, the dollar and oil embarkedon a simultaneous rally. The market’s ability to regain some upside momentum will largely depend on the direction of this trio.
11.09.2023 – As the ECB and Fed take the stage next week, EU and US yields remain close to this cycle’s high. Both central banks are facing inflation levels above their target, but the ECB must contend with a much weaker economy.
September 2023 – Inflation in the USA has fallen sharply from its peak in 2022. In Switzerland, it is at 2020 levels. In Europe, inflation has also fallen from its peaks, but still appears to be at high levels, with energy imports and other factors still weighing on prices…
20.08.2023 – Equities have so far gone through a fairly standard pullback after this year’s remarkable rally. Major indices are on/approaching important supports levels.
04.08.2023 – While both the ECB and Fed have insisted on their data dependency going forward, they are currently facing different economic dynamics, with the US economy significantly surprising to the upside, contrary to the EU economy.
August 2023 – Inflation continues to fall, but the base effect will fade rapidly. Commodity prices are recovering, as the cycle of centralbank rate hikes draws to a close. The very low equity markets volatility prompts us to adopt a cautious stance in the short term.
July 2023 – With the exception of China, all equity markets have risen since the start of the year, albeit with wide disparities. While the Nasdaq is bouncing back after a disastrous 2022, the Swiss equity market is stalling […]
May 2023 – The US economy is slowing, but the job market remains solid. Watch out as it is a “lagging” trend indicator. Energy prices remain low and are supporting consumption, but this may not last […]