Investment Report

Monthly Investment Review
Monthly Investment Review

Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles Imbalances, debt, sticky inflation, and geopolitics result in elevated cyclicality in economic cycles. We expect a US 10-year yield come back towards 3%. Tight financial conditions (FC) in the West, unlike China Contraction of global liquidity led by US (QT), continues. China departs with more […]

Monthly Investment Review
Monthly Investment Review

Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles. Imbalances, debt, sticky inflation, and geopolitics result in elevated cyclicality in economic cycles. We expect a US 10-year yield come back towards 3%. Restrictive financial conditions Western countries, accommodative in China and Japan. Deceleration of global liquidity, led by G7, continues. But still, China follows […]

Quarterly Investment Review
Quarterly Investment Review

  Retrospective Central banks are fighting inflation Central bankers tell us that failing to restore price stability is currently a bigger risk than generating recession. Following the surprising higher than expected inflation data in the US in June at 8.6%, the Fed has raised Fed Funds rates by 75bps, a rare move. More surprisingly, the […]

Monthly Investment Review
Monthly Investment Review

Global vision LT macro regime. Shorter and risker cycles than in past decades. Imbalances, debt, resurging inflation, and geopolitics result in more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles US and China financial conditions (FC) on their way to neutral. Deceleration of global liquidity from late 21 continues. Concomitant rise of USD, correction of risky assets […]

Monthly Investment Review – May 22
Monthly Investment Review – May 22

Global vision Long-term macro regime. Towards shorter and risker cycles than in past decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing in T4 2021, global liquidity has started to contract in 2022. Higher oil prices and sanctions on […]

Quarterly Investment Review – April 22
Quarterly Investment Review – April 22

Retrospective The Russian invasion triggered a risky assets sell-off The pandemic is not even over as the latest lockdowns in China illustrate, and the war in Ukraine started. It is putting global supply chains through another test. Distortions in supply because of the destruction of war and disabled supply chains, sanctions, and voluntary self-sanctioning all […]

Monthly Investment Review -14 March
Monthly Investment Review -14 March

Global vision Long-term macro regime. Prepare for shorter and brisker cycles vs last decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing T421, global liquidity has started to contract in 22 because of central banks, higher oil prices and […]

Monthly Investment Review – 07 February 22
Monthly Investment Review – 07 February 22

Global vision   Long-term macro regime. Growth below potential and more volatile inflation. Demographic and debt undermine potential growth. Coupled with digitalization, it fuels secular disinflationary pressures which collide with – cyclical – inflationary tensions LT macro regime. Inflation durable irritation deteriorates business cycle perspectives Higher and much more volatile inflation will challenge the duration […]

Annual Investment Review – 2022
Annual Investment Review – 2022

The return of inflation Retrospective Inflation significantly higher than expected US inflation rose in November at an unprecedented rate in nearly 40 years. The price increase reached 6.8%. Many factors contributed to this surge, whether transitory or more structural. At the same time, inflation in the euro area hit a record high in November at […]

Monthly Investment Review – 06 December 21
Monthly Investment Review – 06 December 21

Global vision LT macro regime. More variable business cycles ahead The long decline of potential growth is exacerbated by pandemic and rising debt. Secular disinflation is under attack. More volatile duration and amplitude of expansion phases. Lower liquidity profusion Production of excess liquidity is fading, with recovery and resurgence of cyclical inflation. This is triggering […]